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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Dan Hardy won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1354

Dan HardyvsAmir SadollahUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · Saturday, September 29, 2012Nottingham, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Dan Hardy won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Amir Sadollah wins(70.7%)

Actual result: Dan Hardy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Amir Sadollah at +210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Amir Sadollah has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Dan Hardy

Red Corner

Amir Sadollah

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1490

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan Hardy

oldest →

vs Georges St-Pierre · Mar 10

KOvs Carlos Condit · Oct 10

vs Anthony Johnson · Mar 11

SUBvs Chris Lytle · Aug 11

KOvs Duane Ludwig · May 12

latest

Amir Sadollah

oldest →

vs Peter Sobotta · Nov 10

KOvs DaMarques Johnson · Mar 11

vs Duane Ludwig · Aug 11

vs Jorge Lopez · May 12

vs Yoshihiro Akiyama · Sep 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan HardyMetricAmir Sadollah

2.46

Strikes / min

4.71

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.55

51%

Strike defense

60%

0.73

TDs / 15 min

0.57

35%

Takedown defense

60%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.98Δ 2.14 — meaningful gap+1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dan HardyAmir Sadollah

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dan Hardy(6 fights)Amir Sadollah(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +136.5|Blue -136.5

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -11.0|Blue +11.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan HardyTargetAmir Sadollah

By target zone

40% acc · 78%

Head

34% acc · 51%

83% acc · 8%

Body

62% acc · 21%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

77% acc · 28%

By position

39% acc · 58%

Distance

39% acc · 69%

63% acc · 15%

Clinch

75% acc · 30%

63% acc · 26%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dan Hardy rounds

even

Amir Sadollah rounds

Round 1Amir Sadollah edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control1:02

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 2Dan Hardy edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns2

Control2:14

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 3Dan Hardy edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control3:35

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

65 / 141

Sig Strikes

61 / 134

46.3%

Sig Str %

42%

102 / 180

Total Strikes

70 / 144

3 / 7

TDs

0 / 2

44.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:51

Ctrl Time

0:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Amir Sadollah	34 / 65	36 / 67	0 / 0
1	Dan Hardy	23 / 44	34 / 55	0 / 2
2	Amir Sadollah	20 / 48	21 / 49	0 / 0
2	Dan Hardy	19 / 53	33 / 68	2 / 2
3	Amir Sadollah	7 / 21	13 / 28	0 / 2
3	Dan Hardy	23 / 44	35 / 57	1 / 3

Dan Hardy

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6

Amir Sadollah

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights7