Featherweight

3 Rounds

Dan Argueta won · U-DEC R3

Elo1488

Elo1482

Dan ArguetavsNick AguirreUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Saturday, January 14, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dan Argueta won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Dan Argueta wins(73.4%)

Actual result: Dan Argueta wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dan Argueta at -500 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dan Argueta enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Dan Argueta has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Nick Aguirre has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dan Argueta

Red Corner

Nick Aguirre

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+400

(20%)

1488

Elo

1482

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'9"

172.72 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan ArguetaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Damon Jackson · Jun 22

SUBvs Jean Matsumoto · Apr 24

vs Cody Haddon · Oct 24

latest

Nick Aguirre

oldest →

SUBvs Payton Talbott · Nov 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan ArguetaMetricNick Aguirre

2.48

Strikes / min

0.73

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

2.89

50%

Strike defense

45%

4.36

TDs / 15 min

1.16

55%

Takedown defense

33%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.96Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap-2.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dan ArguetaNick Aguirre

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dan Argueta(4 fights)Nick Aguirre(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.4|Blue -5.4

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.1|Blue +49.1

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan ArguetaTargetNick Aguirre

By target zone

45% acc · 62%

Head

33% acc · 100%

90% acc · 19%

Body

0% acc

90% acc · 19%

Leg

0% acc

By position

49% acc · 57%

Distance

31% acc · 93%

67% acc · 13%

Clinch

50% acc · 7%

67% acc · 30%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dan Argueta rounds

even

Nick Aguirre rounds

Round 1Dan Argueta edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control3:24

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:15Control

Round 2Dan Argueta edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control3:22

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Dan Argueta edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control3:28

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 85

Sig Strikes

14 / 44

57%

Sig Str %

53.3%

93 / 144

Total Strikes

15 / 47

4 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

72%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

10:14

Ctrl Time

1:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nick Aguirre	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1
1	Dan Argueta	5 / 8	15 / 26	1 / 2	0
2	Nick Aguirre	9 / 21	9 / 22	0 / 0	0
2	Dan Argueta	25 / 37	38 / 52	1 / 1	2
3	Nick Aguirre	4 / 22	5 / 24	0 / 0	0
3	Dan Argueta	17 / 40	40 / 66	2 / 3	0

Dan Argueta

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4

Nick Aguirre

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights2