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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Jean Matsumoto won · SUB R2

Elo1488

Elo1518

Dan ArguetavsJean MatsumotoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Saturday, April 6, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jean Matsumoto won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:59

Style matchupDan Argueta: WrestlervsJean Matsumoto: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jean Matsumoto wins(60.5%)

Actual result: Jean Matsumoto wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jean Matsumoto at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Dan Argueta (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dan Argueta

Red Corner

Jean Matsumoto

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1488

Elo

1518

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan Argueta

oldest →

vs Damon Jackson · Jun 22

vs Nick Aguirre · Jan 23

vs Cody Haddon · Oct 24

latest

Jean Matsumoto

oldest →

vs Brad Katona · Oct 24

vs Rob Font · Feb 25

vs Miles Johns · Aug 25

vs Farid Basharat · Feb 26

DECvs Bekzat Almakhan · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan ArguetaMetricJean Matsumoto

2.48

Strikes / min

5.37

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

5.41

50%

Strike defense

47%

4.36

TDs / 15 min

3.00

55%

Takedown defense

56%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.96evenly matched on net striking-0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dan ArguetaJean Matsumoto

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dan Argueta(4 fights)Jean Matsumoto(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -30.2|Blue +30.2

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.1|Blue +49.1

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan ArguetaTargetJean Matsumoto

By target zone

35% acc · 93%

Head

42% acc · 53%

100% acc · 7%

Body

33% acc · 5%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 42%

By position

32% acc · 71%

Distance

50% acc · 68%

0% acc

Clinch

63% acc · 26%

80% acc · 29%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dan Argueta rounds

even

Jean Matsumoto rounds

Round 1Dan Argueta edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns4

Control2:45

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:57Control

Round 2Dan Argueta edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns5

Control3:16

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:37Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 39

Sig Strikes

19 / 35

35.5%

Sig Str %

53%

39 / 69

Total Strikes

29 / 47

9 / 19

TDs

2 / 4

47.5%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

6:01

Ctrl Time

1:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jean Matsumoto	6 / 12	8 / 15	1 / 2	0
1	Dan Argueta	6 / 16	26 / 41	4 / 8	0
2	Jean Matsumoto	13 / 23	21 / 32	1 / 2	1
2	Dan Argueta	8 / 23	13 / 28	5 / 11	0

Dan Argueta

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4

Jean Matsumoto

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6