Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Cody Haddon won · U-DEC R3

Elo1488

Elo1533

Dan ArguetavsCody HaddonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Saturday, October 12, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cody Haddon won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDan Argueta: WrestlervsCody Haddon: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Cody Haddon wins(73.7%)

Actual result: Cody Haddon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cody Haddon at -148 American odds

+$68 profit

$168 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cody Haddon has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Cody Haddon has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Dan Argueta (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dan Argueta

Red Corner

Cody Haddon

Blue Corner

+124

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-148

(60%)

1488

Elo

1533

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dan Argueta

oldest →

vs Damon Jackson · Jun 22

vs Nick Aguirre · Jan 23

SUBvs Jean Matsumoto · Apr 24

latest

Cody Haddon

oldest →

KOvs Aoriqileng · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dan ArguetaMetricCody Haddon

2.48

Strikes / min

9.20

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.47

50%

Strike defense

64%

4.36

TDs / 15 min

2.48

55%

Takedown defense

83%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.96Δ 6.69 — meaningful gap+5.73

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dan ArguetaCody Haddon

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dan Argueta(4 fights)Cody Haddon(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -45.3|Blue +45.3

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.1|Blue +49.1

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dan ArguetaTargetCody Haddon

By target zone

30% acc · 63%

Head

100

43% acc · 71%

68% acc · 24%

Body

83% acc · 27%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 1%

By position

37% acc · 78%

Distance

130

49% acc · 93%

50% acc · 17%

Clinch

91% acc · 7%

38% acc · 6%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dan Argueta rounds

even

Cody Haddon rounds

Round 1Cody Haddon edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control1:50

45Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 2Cody Haddon edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control1:51

31Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:00Control

Round 3Cody Haddon edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control0:42

64Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 140

Sig Strikes

140 / 280

37.3%

Sig Str %

49%

65 / 151

Total Strikes

148 / 288

4 / 24

TDs

2 / 4

17%

TD %

66.5%

Sub Att

Rev

4:23

Ctrl Time

1:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cody Haddon	45 / 95	46 / 96	0 / 0	0
1	Dan Argueta	16 / 43	18 / 45	1 / 9	1
2	Cody Haddon	31 / 64	37 / 70	1 / 3	0
2	Dan Argueta	11 / 33	20 / 42	2 / 7	0
3	Cody Haddon	64 / 121	65 / 122	1 / 1	0
3	Dan Argueta	27 / 64	27 / 64	1 / 8	0

Dan Argueta

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4

Cody Haddon

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights2