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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Damon Jackson won · SUB R2

Elo1495

Elo1467

Damon JacksonvsKamuela KirkUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, March 12, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Damon Jackson won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:42

Style matchupDamon Jackson: WrestlervsKamuela Kirk: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Kamuela Kirk wins(72.1%)

Actual result: Damon Jackson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kamuela Kirk at +110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kamuela Kirk has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Damon Jackson

Red Corner

Kamuela Kirk

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1495

Elo

1467

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Damon JacksonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dan Ige · Jan 23

vs Billy Quarantillo · Aug 23

vs Alexander Hernandez · Apr 24

vs Chepe Mariscal · Aug 24

SUBvs Jim Miller · Nov 24

latest

Kamuela Kirk

oldest →

vs Makwan Amirkhani · Jun 21

vs Esteban Ribovics · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Damon JacksonMetricKamuela Kirk

2.96

Strikes / min

3.22

3.47

Strikes absorbed / min

5.87

49%

Strike defense

40%

2.30

TDs / 15 min

1.50

37%

Takedown defense

47%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51Δ 2.14 — meaningful gap-2.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Damon JacksonKamuela Kirk

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Damon Jackson(10 fights)Kamuela Kirk(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +28.6|Blue -28.6

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -126.0|Blue +126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Damon JacksonTargetKamuela Kirk

By target zone

36% acc · 69%

Head

33% acc · 64%

56% acc · 28%

Body

63% acc · 23%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

40% acc · 84%

Distance

37% acc · 82%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

80% acc · 18%

38% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Damon Jackson rounds

even

Kamuela Kirk rounds

Round 1Damon Jackson edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns1

Control0:59

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Damon Jackson edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control4:38

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 78

Sig Strikes

22 / 54

70%

Sig Str %

20.5%

51 / 102

Total Strikes

60 / 93

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:37

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kamuela Kirk	22 / 53	23 / 54	0 / 0	0
1	Damon Jackson	31 / 77	36 / 82	1 / 1	0
2	Kamuela Kirk	0 / 1	37 / 39	0 / 0	0
2	Damon Jackson	1 / 1	15 / 20	1 / 2	1

Damon Jackson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12

Kamuela Kirk

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights3