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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Chepe Mariscal won · U-DEC R3
Elo1495
Damon Jackson
Elo1527

Damon JacksonvsChepe MariscalUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Saturday, August 10, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chepe Mariscal won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDamon Jackson: WrestlervsChepe Mariscal: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Chepe Mariscal wins(70.5%)

Actual result: Chepe Mariscal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chepe Mariscal at -180 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Chepe Mariscal has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Damon Jackson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Damon Jackson
Red Corner
VS
Chepe Mariscal
Blue Corner
+152
(40%)
Vegas Odds
-180
(64%)
1495
Elo
1527
37
Age
33
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'7"
180.34 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Damon Jackson
oldest →
W
KOvs Pat Sabatini · Sep 22
L
KOvs Dan Ige · Jan 23
L
vs Billy Quarantillo · Aug 23
W
vs Alexander Hernandez · Apr 24
L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Nov 24
latest
Chepe Mariscal
oldest →
W
vs Trevor Peek · Jun 23
W
KOvs Jack Jenkins · Sep 23
W
vs Morgan Charriere · Apr 24
W
vs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 25
L
vs Pat Sabatini · Nov 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Damon JacksonMetricChepe Mariscal
2.96
Strikes / min
4.14
3.47
Strikes absorbed / min
2.66
49%
Strike defense
52%
2.30
TDs / 15 min
2.34
37%
Takedown defense
59%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.51Δ 1.99 — meaningful gap+1.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1533 vs 1551Strikes2.9 vs 4.8Takedowns2.3 vs 3.1Sub Atts1.20 vs 0.30Form0.3 vs 1.0
Damon JacksonChepe Mariscal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801498151515331550← oldermost recent →
Damon Jackson(10 fights)Chepe Mariscal(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -31.4|Blue +31.4
Recent Form
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Damon JacksonTargetChepe Mariscal

By target zone

5
31% acc · 16%
Head
59
69% acc · 81%
26
81% acc · 81%
Body
13
100% acc · 18%
1
100% acc · 3%
Leg
1
100% acc · 1%

By position

5
33% acc · 16%
Distance
8
44% acc · 11%
27
79% acc · 84%
Clinch
17
81% acc · 23%
0
Ground
48
79% acc · 66%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Damon Jackson rounds
0
even
3
Chepe Mariscal rounds
Round 1Chepe Mariscal edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control1:37
25Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
2:05Control
Round 2Chepe Mariscal edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control1:17
29Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:30Control
Round 3Chepe Mariscal edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control1:24
19Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:56Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
32 / 49
Sig Strikes
73 / 100
64%
Sig Str %
73%
49 / 72
Total Strikes
218 / 267
1 / 5
TDs
5 / 7
50%
TD %
75%
0
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
2
4:18
Ctrl Time
8:31

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Chepe Mariscal25 / 3753 / 693 / 40
1Damon Jackson18 / 2723 / 380 / 40
2Chepe Mariscal29 / 3894 / 1141 / 10
2Damon Jackson8 / 1214 / 180 / 00
3Chepe Mariscal19 / 2571 / 841 / 20
3Damon Jackson6 / 1012 / 161 / 10

Damon Jackson

StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights12

Chepe Mariscal

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights6