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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Mario Bautista won · U-DEC R3

Elo1510

Elo1554

Da'Mon BlackshearvsMario BautistaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Saturday, August 19, 2023Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Mario Bautista won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDa'Mon Blackshear: Submission grapplervsMario Bautista: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Mario Bautista wins(72.1%)

Actual result: Mario Bautista wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mario Bautista at -205 American odds

+$49 profit

$149 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Da'Mon Blackshear threatens submissions; Mario Bautista has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Da'Mon Blackshear has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Da'Mon Blackshear

Red Corner

Mario Bautista

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-205

(67%)

1510

Elo

1554

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Da'Mon Blackshear

oldest →

KOvs Montel Jackson · Jul 24

SUBvs Cody Stamann · Nov 24

SUBvs Cody Gibson · Mar 25

vs Alatengheili · Apr 25

vs Davey Grant · Jul 25

latest

Mario BautistaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Jose Aldo · Oct 24

vs Patchy Mix · Jun 25

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25

SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26

DECvs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Da'Mon BlackshearMetricMario Bautista

4.33

Strikes / min

5.30

4.19

Strikes absorbed / min

3.98

52%

Strike defense

54%

1.48

TDs / 15 min

1.91

71%

Takedown defense

55%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.14Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap+1.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Da'Mon BlackshearMario Bautista

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Da'Mon Blackshear(9 fights)Mario Bautista(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -43.7|Blue +43.7

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -154.0|Blue +154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Da'Mon BlackshearTargetMario Bautista

By target zone

39% acc · 53%

Head

47% acc · 61%

73% acc · 24%

Body

95% acc · 27%

95% acc · 22%

Leg

83% acc · 13%

By position

40% acc · 58%

Distance

50% acc · 65%

88% acc · 41%

Clinch

80% acc · 30%

33% acc · 1%

Ground

67% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Da'Mon Blackshear rounds

even

Mario Bautista rounds

Round 1Da'Mon Blackshear edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns4

Control2:28

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 2Da'Mon Blackshear edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:27

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:01Control

Round 3Mario Bautista edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:05

28Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:44Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

90 / 174

Sig Strikes

79 / 137

51.3%

Sig Str %

61.7%

108 / 192

Total Strikes

102 / 161

4 / 7

TDs

2 / 10

40%

TD %

20%

Sub Att

Rev

3:00

Ctrl Time

4:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mario Bautista	19 / 25	27 / 33	0 / 0	1
1	Da'Mon Blackshear	29 / 48	38 / 57	4 / 5	0
2	Mario Bautista	32 / 67	34 / 69	0 / 5	0
2	Da'Mon Blackshear	40 / 74	44 / 78	0 / 2	0
3	Mario Bautista	28 / 45	41 / 59	2 / 5	0
3	Da'Mon Blackshear	21 / 52	26 / 57	0 / 0	0

Da'Mon Blackshear

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9

Mario Bautista

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15