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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Da'Mon Blackshear won · SUB R1
Elo1510
Elo1485

Da'Mon BlackshearvsJose JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · Saturday, August 12, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Da'Mon Blackshear won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:47

Model Prediction: Da'Mon Blackshear wins(65.7%)

Actual result: Da'Mon Blackshear wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Da'Mon Blackshear at -238 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Da'Mon Blackshear threatens submissions; Jose Johnson has lost 67% of fights by sub.
  • Da'Mon Blackshear has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Da'Mon Blackshear (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Da'Mon Blackshear
Red Corner
VS
Jose Johnson
Blue Corner
-238
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+195
(34%)
1510
Elo
1485
31
Age
31
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'0"
182.88 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Da'Mon Blackshear
oldest →
L
KOvs Montel Jackson · Jul 24
W
SUBvs Cody Stamann · Nov 24
W
SUBvs Cody Gibson · Mar 25
W
vs Alatengheili · Apr 25
L
vs Davey Grant · Jul 25
latest
Jose JohnsonL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Chad Anheliger · Nov 23
L
vs Asu Almabayev · Jun 24
L
SUBvs Felipe Bunes · Jan 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Da'Mon BlackshearMetricJose Johnson
4.33
Strikes / min
2.27
4.19
Strikes absorbed / min
1.61
52%
Strike defense
53%
1.48
TDs / 15 min
0.69
71%
Takedown defense
41%
1.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.14evenly matched on net striking+0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes4.3 vs 2.2Takedowns2.3 vs 0.7Sub Atts0.80 vs 0.70Form0.1 vs 0.0
Da'Mon BlackshearJose Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Da'Mon Blackshear(9 fights)Jose Johnson(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +25.0|Blue -25.0
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Grappler Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Da'Mon BlackshearTargetJose Johnson

By target zone

7
44% acc · 39%
Head
4
57% acc · 50%
2
40% acc · 11%
Body
2
67% acc · 25%
9
100% acc · 50%
Leg
2
100% acc · 25%

By position

5
38% acc · 28%
Distance
7
78% acc · 88%
6
75% acc · 33%
Clinch
0
0% acc
7
78% acc · 39%
Ground
1
100% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Da'Mon Blackshear rounds
0
even
0
Jose Johnson rounds
Round 1Da'Mon Blackshear edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns2
Control2:57
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
18 / 30
Sig Strikes
8 / 12
60%
Sig Str %
66%
30 / 46
Total Strikes
16 / 21
2 / 4
TDs
0 / 0
50%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:57
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jose Johnson8 / 1216 / 210 / 00
1Da'Mon Blackshear18 / 3030 / 462 / 41

Da'Mon Blackshear

StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights9

Jose Johnson

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights4