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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Damir Ismagulov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1469

Elo1486

Damir IsmagulovvsThiago MoisesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zhang · Saturday, August 31, 2019Shenzhen, Guangdong, China

Official fight result

Damir Ismagulov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDamir Ismagulov: Well-roundedvsThiago Moises: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Damir Ismagulov wins(53.0%)

Actual result: Damir Ismagulov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Damir Ismagulov at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Damir Ismagulov has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Damir Ismagulov has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Damir Ismagulov

Red Corner

Thiago Moises

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1469

Elo

1486

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

187.96 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Damir IsmagulovL2 streak

oldest →

vs Joel Alvarez · Feb 19

vs Rafael Alves · May 21

vs Guram Kutateladze · Jun 22

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Dec 22

vs Grant Dawson · Jul 23

latest

Thiago MoisesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Mar 24

vs Ludovit Klein · Jun 24

vs Trey Ogden · Jan 25

KOvs Jared Gordon · May 25

DECvs Gauge Young · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Damir IsmagulovMetricThiago Moises

3.36

Strikes / min

2.52

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

4.40

61%

Strike defense

52%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

1.37

70%

Takedown defense

52%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.92Δ 2.80 — meaningful gap-1.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Damir IsmagulovThiago Moises

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Damir Ismagulov(7 fights)Thiago Moises(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -16.7|Blue +16.7

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Damir IsmagulovTargetThiago Moises

By target zone

21% acc · 39%

Head

18% acc · 44%

62% acc · 30%

Body

70% acc · 19%

100% acc · 31%

Leg

81% acc · 36%

By position

35% acc · 82%

Distance

29% acc · 89%

67% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

65% acc · 15%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Damir Ismagulov rounds

even

Thiago Moises rounds

Round 1Damir Ismagulov edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:26

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Damir Ismagulov edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:51

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 3Damir Ismagulov edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

71 / 188

Sig Strikes

36 / 114

37%

Sig Str %

32.7%

73 / 191

Total Strikes

37 / 115

0 / 5

TDs

0 / 3

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:17

Ctrl Time

0:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Thiago Moises	11 / 26	11 / 26	0 / 0
1	Damir Ismagulov	28 / 73	30 / 75	0 / 0
2	Thiago Moises	13 / 44	14 / 45	0 / 2
2	Damir Ismagulov	19 / 56	19 / 57	0 / 2
3	Thiago Moises	12 / 44	12 / 44	0 / 1
3	Damir Ismagulov	24 / 59	24 / 59	0 / 3

Damir Ismagulov

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7

Thiago Moises

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15