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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Damir Ismagulov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1469

Elo1514

Damir IsmagulovvsJoel AlvarezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · Saturday, February 23, 2019Prague, Czech Republic

Official fight result

Damir Ismagulov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Damir Ismagulov wins(83.8%)

Actual result: Damir Ismagulov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Damir Ismagulov at -325 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Damir Ismagulov has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Damir Ismagulov

Red Corner

Joel Alvarez

Blue Corner

-325

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+265

(27%)

1469

Elo

1514

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Damir IsmagulovL2 streak

oldest →

vs Thiago Moises · Aug 19

vs Rafael Alves · May 21

vs Guram Kutateladze · Jun 22

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Dec 22

vs Grant Dawson · Jul 23

latest

Joel Alvarez

oldest →

SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Jul 23

KOvs Elves Brener · Aug 24

KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 24

vs Vicente Luque · Oct 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Damir IsmagulovMetricJoel Alvarez

3.36

Strikes / min

4.53

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.03

61%

Strike defense

53%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

0.18

70%

Takedown defense

46%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.92evenly matched on net striking+1.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Damir IsmagulovJoel Alvarez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Damir Ismagulov(7 fights)Joel Alvarez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -44.6|Blue +44.6

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Damir IsmagulovTargetJoel Alvarez

By target zone

29% acc · 39%

Head

24% acc · 68%

59% acc · 47%

Body

45% acc · 13%

64% acc · 14%

Leg

78% acc · 18%

By position

43% acc · 100%

Distance

29% acc · 97%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Damir Ismagulov rounds

even

Joel Alvarez rounds

Round 1Damir Ismagulov edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Damir Ismagulov edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Damir Ismagulov edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 150

Sig Strikes

38 / 127

42%

Sig Str %

29.3%

64 / 150

Total Strikes

38 / 127

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Joel Alvarez	16 / 54	16 / 54	0 / 0
1	Damir Ismagulov	25 / 58	25 / 58	0 / 0
2	Joel Alvarez	11 / 37	11 / 37	0 / 0
2	Damir Ismagulov	25 / 57	25 / 57	0 / 0
3	Joel Alvarez	11 / 36	11 / 36	0 / 0
3	Damir Ismagulov	14 / 35	14 / 35	0 / 0

Damir Ismagulov

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7

Joel Alvarez

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights11