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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Damir Ismagulov won · S-DEC R3

Elo1469

Elo1492

Damir IsmagulovvsGuram KutateladzeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · Saturday, June 18, 2022Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Damir Ismagulov won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDamir Ismagulov: Well-roundedvsGuram Kutateladze: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Damir Ismagulov wins(53.8%)

Actual result: Damir Ismagulov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Damir Ismagulov at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Damir Ismagulov

Red Corner

Guram Kutateladze

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1469

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Damir IsmagulovL2 streak

oldest →

vs Joel Alvarez · Feb 19

vs Thiago Moises · Aug 19

vs Rafael Alves · May 21

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Dec 22

vs Grant Dawson · Jul 23

latest

Guram Kutateladze

oldest →

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 20

KOvs Elves Brener · Jul 23

vs Jordan Vucenic · Aug 24

vs Kaue Fernandes · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Damir IsmagulovMetricGuram Kutateladze

3.36

Strikes / min

3.53

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

4.22

61%

Strike defense

54%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

0.61

70%

Takedown defense

75%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.92Δ 1.61 — meaningful gap-0.69

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Damir IsmagulovGuram Kutateladze

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Damir Ismagulov(7 fights)Guram Kutateladze(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -22.9|Blue +22.9

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -217.0|Blue +217.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Damir IsmagulovTargetGuram Kutateladze

By target zone

36% acc · 80%

Head

22% acc · 37%

82% acc · 18%

Body

85% acc · 36%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

84% acc · 27%

By position

41% acc · 96%

Distance

38% acc · 82%

38% acc · 4%

Clinch

81% acc · 17%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Damir Ismagulov rounds

even

Guram Kutateladze rounds

Round 1Guram Kutateladze edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:15

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 2Damir Ismagulov edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:11

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:20

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Fight Stats

Totals

79 / 192

Sig Strikes

78 / 187

40.7%

Sig Str %

41%

83 / 197

Total Strikes

80 / 190

0 / 6

TDs

1 / 7

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:46

Ctrl Time

0:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Guram Kutateladze	26 / 63	27 / 65	1 / 2
1	Damir Ismagulov	21 / 57	23 / 60	0 / 2
2	Guram Kutateladze	23 / 58	23 / 58	0 / 3
2	Damir Ismagulov	30 / 65	32 / 67	0 / 0
3	Guram Kutateladze	29 / 66	30 / 67	0 / 2
3	Damir Ismagulov	28 / 70	28 / 70	0 / 4

Damir Ismagulov

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7

Guram Kutateladze

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5