← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Grant Dawson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1469

Elo1527

Damir IsmagulovvsGrant DawsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Saturday, July 1, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Grant Dawson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDamir Ismagulov: Well-roundedvsGrant Dawson: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Grant Dawson wins(83.7%)

Actual result: Grant Dawson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Grant Dawson at -102 American odds

+$98 profit

$198 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Damir Ismagulov has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Grant Dawson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Damir Ismagulov

Red Corner

Grant Dawson

Blue Corner

-116

(54%)

Vegas Odds

-102

(50%)

1469

Elo

1527

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Damir Ismagulov

oldest →

vs Joel Alvarez · Feb 19

vs Thiago Moises · Aug 19

vs Rafael Alves · May 21

vs Guram Kutateladze · Jun 22

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Dec 22

latest

Grant Dawson

oldest →

vs Joe Solecki · Jun 24

KOvs Rafa Garcia · Oct 24

vs Diego Ferreira · Jan 25

KOvs Manuel Torres · Dec 25

SUBvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Damir IsmagulovMetricGrant Dawson

3.36

Strikes / min

3.14

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

2.14

61%

Strike defense

44%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

3.58

70%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.92evenly matched on net striking+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Damir IsmagulovGrant Dawson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Damir Ismagulov(7 fights)Grant Dawson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -58.2|Blue +58.2

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Damir IsmagulovTargetGrant Dawson

By target zone

32% acc · 46%

Head

58% acc · 93%

75% acc · 46%

Body

13% acc · 3%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

46% acc · 100%

Distance

26% acc · 30%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

95% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Damir Ismagulov rounds

even

Grant Dawson rounds

Round 1Grant Dawson edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:05

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:55Control

Round 2Grant Dawson edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:57Control

Round 3Grant Dawson edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:03

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 28

Sig Strikes

30 / 57

37.7%

Sig Str %

47.3%

35 / 54

Total Strikes

84 / 128

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 5

—

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

12:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Grant Dawson	23 / 35	44 / 57	1 / 2	0
1	Damir Ismagulov	2 / 6	4 / 8	0 / 0	0
2	Grant Dawson	5 / 18	22 / 38	1 / 1	1
2	Damir Ismagulov	10 / 18	14 / 22	0 / 0	0
3	Grant Dawson	2 / 4	18 / 33	1 / 2	0
3	Damir Ismagulov	1 / 4	17 / 24	0 / 0	0

Damir Ismagulov

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7

Grant Dawson

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14