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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Vinc Pichel won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1364
Damien Brown
Elo1488

Damien BrownvsVinc PichelUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · Saturday, June 10, 2017Auckland, New Zealand

Official fight result

Vinc Pichel won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:37

Model Prediction: Vinc Pichel wins(75.0%)

Actual result: Vinc Pichel wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vinc Pichel at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Vinc Pichel enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Damien Brown has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Vinc Pichel has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Damien Brown
Red Corner
VS
Vinc Pichel
Blue Corner
+105
(49%)
Vegas Odds
-125
(56%)
1364
Elo
1488
41
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
172.72 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Damien BrownL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Alan Patrick · Mar 16
W
KOvs Cesar Arzamendia · Jul 16
W
vs Jon Tuck · Nov 16
L
vs Frank Camacho · Nov 17
L
vs Dong Hyun Ma · Feb 18
latest
Vinc PichelL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Jim Miller · Aug 20
W
vs Austin Hubbard · Aug 21
L
vs Mark Madsen · Apr 22
L
vs Ismael Bonfim · May 24
L
vs Rafa Garcia · Mar 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Damien BrownMetricVinc Pichel
3.66
Strikes / min
3.78
4.86
Strikes absorbed / min
3.17
50%
Strike defense
54%
0.68
TDs / 15 min
2.50
53%
Takedown defense
31%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.20Δ 1.81 — meaningful gap+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1519 vs 1519Strikes23.7 vs 33.7Takedowns0.3 vs 5.3Sub Atts0.67 vs 0.33Form0.5 vs 0.7
Damien BrownVinc Pichel

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Damien Brown(6 fights)Vinc Pichel(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -124.0|Blue +124.0
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -917.0|Blue +917.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Damien BrownTargetVinc Pichel

By target zone

16
31% acc · 76%
Head
13
45% acc · 68%
1
100% acc · 5%
Body
4
100% acc · 21%
4
100% acc · 19%
Leg
2
40% acc · 11%

By position

18
34% acc · 86%
Distance
14
45% acc · 74%
3
100% acc · 14%
Clinch
2
100% acc · 11%
0
Ground
3
60% acc · 16%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Damien Brown rounds
0
even
1
Vinc Pichel rounds
Round 1Vinc Pichel edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
21 / 56
Sig Strikes
19 / 38
37%
Sig Str %
50%
21 / 56
Total Strikes
19 / 38
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Vinc Pichel19 / 3819 / 380 / 00
1Damien Brown21 / 5621 / 560 / 00

Damien Brown

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights6

Vinc Pichel

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights12