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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Damien Brown won · S-DEC R3

Elo1364

Elo1491

Damien BrownvsJon TuckUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · Saturday, November 26, 2016Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Damien Brown won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jon Tuck wins(55.9%)

Actual result: Damien Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Tuck at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Damien Brown enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jon Tuck has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jon Tuck has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Damien Brown

Red Corner

Jon Tuck

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1364

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

172.72 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Damien BrownL3 streak

oldest →

vs Alan Patrick · Mar 16

KOvs Cesar Arzamendia · Jul 16

KOvs Vinc Pichel · Jun 17

vs Frank Camacho · Nov 17

vs Dong Hyun Ma · Feb 18

latest

Jon Tuck

oldest →

vs Kevin Lee · Sep 14

SUBvs Tae Hyun Bang · May 15

vs Josh Emmett · May 16

SUBvs Takanori Gomi · Jun 17

vs Drew Dober · Aug 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Damien BrownMetricJon Tuck

3.66

Strikes / min

3.00

4.86

Strikes absorbed / min

3.74

50%

Strike defense

60%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

0.42

53%

Takedown defense

50%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.20evenly matched on net striking-0.74

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Damien BrownJon Tuck

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Damien Brown(6 fights)Jon Tuck(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -127.3|Blue +127.3

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -83.0|Blue +83.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Damien BrownTargetJon Tuck

By target zone

21% acc · 65%

Head

36% acc · 62%

19% acc · 9%

Body

64% acc · 18%

82% acc · 26%

Leg

80% acc · 21%

By position

25% acc · 91%

Distance

41% acc · 72%

50% acc · 9%

Clinch

75% acc · 8%

Ground

57% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Damien Brown rounds

even

Jon Tuck rounds

Round 1Jon Tuck edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:39Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Damien Brown edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 130

Sig Strikes

39 / 87

22.3%

Sig Str %

45.7%

40 / 136

Total Strikes

73 / 122

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

3:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jon Tuck	11 / 21	44 / 55	0 / 1	0
1	Damien Brown	2 / 18	8 / 24	0 / 0	1
2	Jon Tuck	13 / 28	13 / 28	0 / 0	0
2	Damien Brown	15 / 49	15 / 49	0 / 0	0
3	Jon Tuck	15 / 38	16 / 39	0 / 0	0
3	Damien Brown	17 / 63	17 / 63	0 / 1	0

Damien Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6

Jon Tuck

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9