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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Frank Camacho won · S-DEC R3
Elo1364
Damien Brown
Elo1425

Damien BrownvsFrank CamachoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · Saturday, November 18, 2017Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Frank Camacho won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Damien Brown wins(56.0%)

Actual result: Frank Camacho wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Damien Brown at +105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Frank Camacho enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Damien Brown is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Frank Camacho has lost 60% of fights by KO.
  • Frank Camacho has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Frank Camacho has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Damien Brown
Red Corner
VS
Frank Camacho
Blue Corner
+105
(49%)
Vegas Odds
-125
(56%)
1364
Elo
1425
41
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
172.72 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Damien BrownL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Alan Patrick · Mar 16
W
KOvs Cesar Arzamendia · Jul 16
W
vs Jon Tuck · Nov 16
L
KOvs Vinc Pichel · Jun 17
L
vs Dong Hyun Ma · Feb 18
latest
Frank CamachoL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Sep 18
W
KOvs Nick Hein · Jun 19
L
SUBvs Beneil Dariush · Oct 19
L
KOvs Justin Jaynes · Jun 20
L
KOvs Manuel Torres · May 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Damien BrownMetricFrank Camacho
3.66
Strikes / min
6.56
4.86
Strikes absorbed / min
7.44
50%
Strike defense
51%
0.68
TDs / 15 min
1.11
53%
Takedown defense
73%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.20evenly matched on net striking-0.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1500Strikes23.0 vs —Takedowns0.3 vs —Sub Atts0.50 vs —Form-0.1 vs 0.0
Damien BrownFrank Camacho

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Damien Brown(6 fights)Frank Camacho(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -60.8|Blue +60.8
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red -48.9|Blue +48.9
Grappler Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Damien BrownTargetFrank Camacho

By target zone

72
34% acc · 69%
Head
137
49% acc · 89%
19
76% acc · 18%
Body
17
77% acc · 11%
13
100% acc · 13%
Leg
0

By position

99
41% acc · 95%
Distance
130
48% acc · 84%
4
67% acc · 4%
Clinch
23
85% acc · 15%
1
100% acc · 1%
Ground
1
100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Damien Brown rounds
0
even
3
Frank Camacho rounds
Round 1Frank Camacho edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns2
Control2:09
21Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:44Control
Round 2Frank Camacho edged it
Sig. strikes43
Takedowns0
Control0:00
53Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:28Control
Round 3Frank Camacho edged it
Sig. strikes54
Takedowns0
Control0:02
80Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
104 / 251
Sig Strikes
154 / 299
43.7%
Sig Str %
56%
115 / 263
Total Strikes
212 / 360
2 / 7
TDs
1 / 5
13.3%
TD %
20%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
1
2:11
Ctrl Time
2:17

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Frank Camacho21 / 3051 / 621 / 50
1Damien Brown7 / 1415 / 222 / 51
2Frank Camacho53 / 11073 / 1300 / 00
2Damien Brown43 / 10745 / 1090 / 10
3Frank Camacho80 / 15988 / 1680 / 00
3Damien Brown54 / 13055 / 1320 / 10

Damien Brown

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights6

Frank Camacho

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights7