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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Yaotzin Meza won · U-DEC R3

Elo1367

Elo1356

Damian StasiakvsYaotzin MezaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · Saturday, April 11, 2015Krakow, Poland

Official fight result

Yaotzin Meza won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDamian Stasiak: WrestlervsYaotzin Meza: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Yaotzin Meza wins(66.8%)

Actual result: Yaotzin Meza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yaotzin Meza at +115 American odds

+$115 profit

$215 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Damian Stasiak enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Yaotzin Meza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Yaotzin Meza has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Damian Stasiak has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Damian Stasiak

Red Corner

Yaotzin Meza

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1367

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Damian StasiakL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Filip Pejic · Apr 16

SUBvs Davey Grant · Oct 16

vs Pedro Munhoz · May 17

KOvs Brian Kelleher · Oct 17

vs Liu Pingyuan · Jul 18

latest

Yaotzin MezaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chad Mendes · Dec 12

SUBvs John Albert · Jul 13

vs Sergio Pettis · Jun 14

vs Sam Sicilia · Jul 15

vs Arnold Allen · Feb 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Damian StasiakMetricYaotzin Meza

1.86

Strikes / min

1.43

3.10

Strikes absorbed / min

1.62

52%

Strike defense

64%

2.64

TDs / 15 min

1.06

43%

Takedown defense

18%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.24Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap-0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Damian StasiakYaotzin Meza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Damian Stasiak(6 fights)Yaotzin Meza(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.2|Blue -10.2

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Grappler Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Damian StasiakTargetYaotzin Meza

By target zone

57% acc · 57%

Head

36% acc · 24%

50% acc · 21%

Body

100% acc · 6%

100% acc · 21%

Leg

92% acc · 71%

By position

47% acc · 57%

Distance

56% acc · 53%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

100% acc · 36%

Ground

88% acc · 41%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Damian Stasiak rounds

even

Yaotzin Meza rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control1:44

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:08Control

Round 2Yaotzin Meza edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:53

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:25Control

Round 3Yaotzin Meza edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:05

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:39Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 23

Sig Strikes

17 / 25

71.3%

Sig Str %

64.7%

16 / 25

Total Strikes

70 / 82

1 / 2

TDs

2 / 2

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:42

Ctrl Time

10:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Yaotzin Meza	4 / 9	12 / 21	1 / 1	1
1	Damian Stasiak	6 / 11	6 / 11	1 / 2	1
2	Yaotzin Meza	11 / 13	22 / 24	0 / 0	1
2	Damian Stasiak	6 / 10	8 / 12	0 / 0	0
3	Yaotzin Meza	2 / 3	36 / 37	1 / 1	1
3	Damian Stasiak	2 / 2	2 / 2	0 / 0	0

Damian Stasiak

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6

Yaotzin Meza

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6