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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Brian Kelleher won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1367

Elo1489

Damian StasiakvsBrian KelleherUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Till · Saturday, October 21, 2017Gdansk, Poland

Official fight result

Brian Kelleher won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:39

Style matchupDamian Stasiak: WrestlervsBrian Kelleher: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Damian Stasiak wins(51.1%)

Actual result: Brian Kelleher wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Damian Stasiak at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brian Kelleher enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Damian Stasiak threatens submissions; Brian Kelleher has lost 56% of fights by sub.
Brian Kelleher has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Brian Kelleher (52.9%).
Damian Stasiak has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Damian Stasiak

Red Corner

Brian Kelleher

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1367

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'5"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Damian StasiakL2 streak

oldest →

vs Yaotzin Meza · Apr 15

SUBvs Filip Pejic · Apr 16

SUBvs Davey Grant · Oct 16

vs Pedro Munhoz · May 17

vs Liu Pingyuan · Jul 18

latest

Brian KelleherL4 streak

oldest →

vs Kevin Croom · Jan 22

SUBvs Umar Nurmagomedov · Mar 22

SUBvs Mario Bautista · Jun 22

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 23

SUBvs Cody Gibson · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Damian StasiakMetricBrian Kelleher

1.86

Strikes / min

3.31

3.10

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

52%

Strike defense

54%

2.64

TDs / 15 min

1.68

43%

Takedown defense

60%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.24evenly matched on net striking-1.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Damian StasiakBrian Kelleher

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Damian Stasiak(6 fights)Brian Kelleher(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -122.3|Blue +122.3

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +55.0|Blue -55.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Damian StasiakTargetBrian Kelleher

By target zone

30% acc · 60%

Head

47% acc · 70%

47% acc · 19%

Body

64% acc · 9%

100% acc · 21%

Leg

94% acc · 22%

By position

38% acc · 98%

Distance

44% acc · 61%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

67% acc · 10%

Ground

88% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Damian Stasiak rounds

even

Brian Kelleher rounds

Round 1Brian Kelleher edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:33

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:04Control

Round 2Brian Kelleher edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control0:52

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:19Control

Round 3Brian Kelleher edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:21

Knockdowns0

35Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:11Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 112

Sig Strikes

79 / 147

38%

Sig Str %

53%

45 / 114

Total Strikes

116 / 194

1 / 10

TDs

1 / 1

8.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:46

Ctrl Time

4:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brian Kelleher	19 / 42	30 / 58	0 / 0	1
1	Damian Stasiak	14 / 35	16 / 37	0 / 3	0
2	Brian Kelleher	25 / 54	50 / 84	0 / 0	0
2	Damian Stasiak	14 / 37	14 / 37	1 / 4	0
3	Brian Kelleher	35 / 51	36 / 52	1 / 1	0
3	Damian Stasiak	15 / 40	15 / 40	0 / 3	0

Damian Stasiak

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6

Brian Kelleher

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17