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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Damian Pinas won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1551

Elo1487

Damian PinasvsCesar AlmeidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Saturday, July 11, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Damian Pinas won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:44

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Damian Pinas

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Damian Pinas at -256 American odds · hypothetical only

+$39 profit

$139 total returned

Style matchupDamian Pinas: Pressure fightervsCesar Almeida: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Damian Pinas wins(57.8%)

Actual result: Damian Pinas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Damian Pinas has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Damian Pinas has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Damian Pinas has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Damian Pinas

Red Corner

Cesar Almeida

Blue Corner

-256

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+208

(32%)

1551

Elo

1487

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

200.66 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Damian Pinas

oldest →

KOvs Wes Schultz · Feb 26

latest

Cesar Almeida

oldest →

KOvs Dylan Budka · Apr 24

vs Roman Kopylov · Jun 24

vs Ihor Potieria · Oct 24

KOvs Abdul Razak Alhassan · Jan 25

vs Cezary Oleksiejczuk · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Damian PinasMetricCesar Almeida

7.50

Strikes / min

3.46

3.75

Strikes absorbed / min

2.03

56%

Strike defense

46%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

100%

Takedown defense

52%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.75Δ 2.32 — meaningful gap+1.43

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Damian Pinas(2 fights)Cesar Almeida(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +63.8|Blue -63.8

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Damian PinasTargetCesar Almeida

By target zone

60% acc · 48%

Head

50% acc · 22%

100% acc · 20%

Body

75% acc · 41%

100% acc · 32%

Leg

100% acc · 38%

By position

75% acc · 96%

Distance

74% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Damian Pinas rounds

even

Cesar Almeida rounds

Round 1Cesar Almeida edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

37Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:33Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 33

Sig Strikes

37 / 50

75%

Sig Str %

74%

28 / 37

Total Strikes

39 / 52

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cesar Almeida	37 / 50	39 / 52	1 / 1	0
1	Damian Pinas	25 / 33	28 / 37	0 / 1	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Damian Pinas

Odds

-256

Market-implied probability

Damian Pinas 69%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Damian Pinas (model pick · research)$139

Cesar Almeida$308

69% market-implied · model 52% (research) · vufc_v5_pure_lightgbm_20260712_125850

🔒 Pick locked Jul 12, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC at -256 · never rewritten

Damian Pinas

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights2

Cesar Almeida

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6