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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Chase Sherman won · U-DEC R3

Elo1361

Elo1459

Damian GrabowskivsChase ShermanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · Saturday, July 22, 2017Uniondale, New York, USA

Official fight result

Chase Sherman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDamian Grabowski: Pressure fightervsChase Sherman: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Chase Sherman wins(74.4%)

Actual result: Chase Sherman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chase Sherman at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chase Sherman is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Damian Grabowski has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Chase Sherman has 74pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Damian Grabowski

Red Corner

Chase Sherman

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-245

(71%)

1361

Elo

1459

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Damian GrabowskiL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Feb 16

KOvs Anthony Hamilton · Jul 16

latest

Chase ShermanL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jake Collier · Jan 22

SUBvs Alexandr Romanov · Apr 22

KOvs Jared Vanderaa · Jul 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Nov 22

vs Karl Williams · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Damian GrabowskiMetricChase Sherman

4.00

Strikes / min

6.04

7.65

Strikes absorbed / min

6.65

51%

Strike defense

52%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.09

Takedown defense

74%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-3.65Δ 3.04 — meaningful gap-0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Damian GrabowskiChase Sherman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Damian Grabowski(3 fights)Chase Sherman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -97.7|Blue +97.7

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -1.9|Blue +1.9

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +287.0|Blue -287.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Damian GrabowskiTargetChase Sherman

By target zone

27% acc · 59%

Head

36% acc · 55%

79% acc · 22%

Body

81% acc · 19%

68% acc · 19%

Leg

85% acc · 26%

By position

34% acc · 85%

Distance

46% acc · 87%

67% acc · 15%

Clinch

82% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Damian Grabowski rounds

even

Chase Sherman rounds

Round 1Chase Sherman edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Chase Sherman edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

43Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Chase Sherman edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:01

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 188

Sig Strikes

111 / 228

35.3%

Sig Str %

48.3%

69 / 190

Total Strikes

112 / 229

0 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chase Sherman	32 / 72	32 / 72	0 / 0
1	Damian Grabowski	15 / 57	15 / 57	0 / 0
2	Chase Sherman	43 / 86	43 / 86	0 / 0
2	Damian Grabowski	28 / 71	28 / 71	0 / 1
3	Chase Sherman	36 / 70	37 / 71	0 / 0
3	Damian Grabowski	25 / 60	26 / 62	0 / 4

Damian Grabowski

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights3

Chase Sherman

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15