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Welterweight
3 Rounds
DaMarques Johnson won · SUB R1
Elo1352
Elo1351

DaMarques JohnsonvsMike GuymonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 2 · Saturday, January 22, 2011Killeen, Texas, USA

Official fight result

DaMarques Johnson won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:22

Model Prediction: Mike Guymon wins(74.4%)

Actual result: DaMarques Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Guymon at +105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • DaMarques Johnson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Mike Guymon has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Mike Guymon has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

DaMarques Johnson
Red Corner
VS
Mike Guymon
Blue Corner
-125
(56%)
Vegas Odds
+105
(49%)
1352
Elo
1351
44
Age
51
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

DaMarques JohnsonL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Amir Sadollah · Mar 11
W
KOvs Clay Harvison · Nov 11
L
SUBvs John Maguire · Apr 12
L
KOvs Mike Swick · Aug 12
L
SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Sep 12
latest
Mike Guymon
oldest →
W
vs Yoshiyuki Yoshida · May 10
L
SUBvs Daniel Roberts · Oct 10
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

DaMarques JohnsonMetricMike Guymon
2.11
Strikes / min
2.75
3.75
Strikes absorbed / min
0.79
51%
Strike defense
66%
1.18
TDs / 15 min
1.87
19%
Takedown defense
54%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.64Δ 3.60 — meaningful gap+1.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1499Strikes16.5 vs 21.7Takedowns0.0 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.67Form-0.1 vs -0.2
DaMarques JohnsonMike Guymon

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
DaMarques Johnson(8 fights)Mike Guymon(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +83.0|Blue -83.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

DaMarques JohnsonTargetMike Guymon

By target zone

2
50% acc · 100%
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 100%

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
1
100% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
2
67% acc · 100%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
DaMarques Johnson rounds
0
even
0
Mike Guymon rounds
Round 1DaMarques Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns1
Control3:06
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
2 / 4
Sig Strikes
1 / 1
50%
Sig Str %
100%
11 / 13
Total Strikes
10 / 10
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 1
100%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:06
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mike Guymon1 / 110 / 100 / 10
1DaMarques Johnson2 / 411 / 131 / 10

DaMarques Johnson

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights8

Mike Guymon

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights3