Welterweight

3 Rounds

Matthew Riddle won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1352

Elo1490

DaMarques JohnsonvsMatthew RiddleUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko · Sunday, August 1, 2010San Diego, California, USA

Official fight result

Matthew Riddle won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:29

Model Prediction: Matthew Riddle wins(63.1%)

Actual result: Matthew Riddle wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matthew Riddle at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

DaMarques Johnson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Matthew Riddle has 70pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Matthew Riddle (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

DaMarques Johnson

Red Corner

Matthew Riddle

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1352

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

DaMarques JohnsonL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Amir Sadollah · Mar 11

KOvs Clay Harvison · Nov 11

SUBvs John Maguire · Apr 12

KOvs Mike Swick · Aug 12

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Sep 12

latest

Matthew RiddleW2 streak

oldest →

vs Greg Soto · Mar 10

vs Sean Pierson · Dec 10

vs Lance Benoist · Sep 11

vs Henry Martinez · Feb 12

vs John Maguire · Nov 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

DaMarques JohnsonMetricMatthew Riddle

2.11

Strikes / min

3.01

3.75

Strikes absorbed / min

2.74

51%

Strike defense

54%

1.18

TDs / 15 min

3.51

19%

Takedown defense

89%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.64Δ 1.91 — meaningful gap+0.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

DaMarques JohnsonMatthew Riddle

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

DaMarques Johnson(8 fights)Matthew Riddle(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -138.5|Blue +138.5

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -2.1|Blue +2.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

DaMarques JohnsonTargetMatthew Riddle

By target zone

22% acc · 56%

Head

47% acc · 88%

100% acc · 22%

Body

100% acc · 12%

100% acc · 22%

Leg

By position

17% acc · 33%

Distance

50% acc · 12%

100% acc · 33%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

50% acc · 33%

Ground

48% acc · 79%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

DaMarques Johnson rounds

even

Matthew Riddle rounds

Round 1Matthew Riddle edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:23Control

Round 2Matthew Riddle edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:47

24Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 27

Sig Strikes

42 / 83

45%

Sig Str %

50%

17 / 37

Total Strikes

75 / 127

0 / 2

TDs

3 / 4

TD %

83%

Sub Att

Rev

0:47

Ctrl Time

6:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Matthew Riddle	18 / 37	39 / 65	1 / 1
1	DaMarques Johnson	3 / 19	6 / 23	0 / 0
2	Matthew Riddle	24 / 46	36 / 62	2 / 3
2	DaMarques Johnson	6 / 8	11 / 14	0 / 2

DaMarques Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8

Matthew Riddle

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6