Welterweight

3 Rounds

John Maguire won · SUB R2

Elo1352

DaMarques JohnsonvsJohn MaguireUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva · Saturday, April 14, 2012Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

John Maguire won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:40

Model Prediction: John Maguire wins(75.5%)

Actual result: John Maguire wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Maguire at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

John Maguire enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
John Maguire threatens submissions; DaMarques Johnson has lost 40% of fights by sub.
John Maguire has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
John Maguire has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors John Maguire (53.5%).
DaMarques Johnson has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

DaMarques Johnson

Red Corner

John Maguire

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1352

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

DaMarques JohnsonL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Mike Guymon · Jan 11

KOvs Amir Sadollah · Mar 11

KOvs Clay Harvison · Nov 11

KOvs Mike Swick · Aug 12

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Sep 12

latest

John MaguireL3 streak

oldest →

vs Justin Edwards · Nov 11

vs John Hathaway · Sep 12

vs Matthew Riddle · Nov 12

vs Mitch Clarke · Jun 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

DaMarques JohnsonMetricJohn Maguire

2.11

Strikes / min

1.41

3.75

Strikes absorbed / min

2.44

51%

Strike defense

65%

1.18

TDs / 15 min

2.80

19%

Takedown defense

77%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.64evenly matched on net striking-1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

DaMarques JohnsonJohn Maguire

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

DaMarques Johnson(8 fights)John Maguire(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

DaMarques JohnsonTargetJohn Maguire

By target zone

44% acc · 53%

Head

80% acc · 67%

100% acc · 13%

Body

100% acc · 33%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 40%

Distance

50% acc · 17%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

67% acc · 53%

Ground

100% acc · 83%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

DaMarques Johnson rounds

even

John Maguire rounds

Round 1John Maguire edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:11Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:45

2Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:57Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 25

Sig Strikes

6 / 7

59.5%

Sig Str %

90%

33 / 44

Total Strikes

35 / 38

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 3

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:45

Ctrl Time

6:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	John Maguire	4 / 5	29 / 32	1 / 1	0
1	DaMarques Johnson	6 / 12	13 / 19	0 / 0	1
2	John Maguire	2 / 2	6 / 6	2 / 2	1
2	DaMarques Johnson	9 / 13	20 / 25	0 / 0	0

DaMarques Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8

John Maguire

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5