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Catch Weight
3 Rounds
Gunnar Nelson won · SUB R1
Elo1352
Elo1497
Gunnar Nelson

DaMarques JohnsonvsGunnar NelsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · Saturday, September 29, 2012Nottingham, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Gunnar Nelson won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:34

Model Prediction: DaMarques Johnson wins(58.4%)

Actual result: Gunnar Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

DaMarques Johnson at +310 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Gunnar Nelson threatens submissions; DaMarques Johnson has lost 40% of fights by sub.
  • Gunnar Nelson has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

DaMarques Johnson
Red Corner
VS
Gunnar Nelson
Blue Corner
+310
(24%)
Vegas Odds
-340
(77%)
1352
Elo
1497
44
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'1"
Height
5'11"
190.5 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

DaMarques JohnsonL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Mike Guymon · Jan 11
L
KOvs Amir Sadollah · Mar 11
W
KOvs Clay Harvison · Nov 11
L
SUBvs John Maguire · Apr 12
L
KOvs Mike Swick · Aug 12
latest
Gunnar Nelson
oldest →
L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19
L
vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19
W
vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22
W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23
L
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

DaMarques JohnsonMetricGunnar Nelson
2.11
Strikes / min
1.77
3.75
Strikes absorbed / min
3.06
51%
Strike defense
48%
1.18
TDs / 15 min
2.00
19%
Takedown defense
68%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.64evenly matched on net striking-1.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1481 vs 1500Strikes14.8 vs —Takedowns0.6 vs —Sub Atts0.33 vs —Form-0.5 vs 0.0
DaMarques JohnsonGunnar Nelson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
DaMarques Johnson(8 fights)Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -144.9|Blue +144.9
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red -48.9|Blue +48.9
Grappler Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

DaMarques JohnsonTargetGunnar Nelson

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
7
88% acc · 78%
1
100% acc · 100%
Body
0
0
Leg
2
100% acc · 22%

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
3
75% acc · 33%
1
100% acc · 100%
Clinch
0
0
Ground
6
100% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
DaMarques Johnson rounds
0
even
1
Gunnar Nelson rounds
Round 1Gunnar Nelson edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:51Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
1 / 4
Sig Strikes
9 / 10
25%
Sig Str %
90%
1 / 4
Total Strikes
16 / 17
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
2
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
2:51

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Gunnar Nelson9 / 1016 / 171 / 12
1DaMarques Johnson1 / 41 / 40 / 00

DaMarques Johnson

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights8

Gunnar Nelson

StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights16