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Welterweight
3 Rounds
DaMarques Johnson won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1352
Elo1351

DaMarques JohnsonvsClay HarvisonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos · Saturday, November 12, 2011Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

DaMarques Johnson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:34

Model Prediction: Clay Harvison wins(59.2%)

Actual result: DaMarques Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Clay Harvison at +240 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • DaMarques Johnson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • DaMarques Johnson is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Clay Harvison has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Clay Harvison has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

DaMarques Johnson
Red Corner
VS
Clay Harvison
Blue Corner
-260
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+240
(29%)
1352
Elo
1351
44
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'1"
190.5 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

DaMarques JohnsonL4 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Mike Guymon · Jan 11
L
KOvs Amir Sadollah · Mar 11
L
SUBvs John Maguire · Apr 12
L
KOvs Mike Swick · Aug 12
L
SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Sep 12
latest
Clay Harvison
oldest →
W
vs Justin Edwards · Jun 11
L
SUBvs Seth Baczynski · Sep 11
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

DaMarques JohnsonMetricClay Harvison
2.11
Strikes / min
3.29
3.75
Strikes absorbed / min
3.91
51%
Strike defense
58%
1.18
TDs / 15 min
0.66
19%
Takedown defense
68%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.64Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap-0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1499 vs 1498Strikes15.8 vs 34.5Takedowns0.5 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.33 vs 1.00Form-0.1 vs -0.1
DaMarques JohnsonClay Harvison

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
DaMarques Johnson(8 fights)Clay Harvison(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red +175.0|Blue -175.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

DaMarques JohnsonTargetClay Harvison

By target zone

6
30% acc · 100%
Head
2
12% acc · 33%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
4
100% acc · 67%

By position

5
26% acc · 83%
Distance
6
29% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
1
100% acc · 17%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
DaMarques Johnson rounds
0
even
0
Clay Harvison rounds
Round 1DaMarques Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
6 / 20
Sig Strikes
6 / 21
30%
Sig Str %
28%
6 / 20
Total Strikes
6 / 21
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Clay Harvison6 / 216 / 210 / 00
1DaMarques Johnson6 / 206 / 200 / 00

DaMarques Johnson

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights8

Clay Harvison

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights3