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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Alex Caceres won · SUB R2

Elo1352

Elo1500

Damacio PagevsAlex CaceresUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman · Wednesday, July 11, 2012San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Alex Caceres won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:27

Style matchupDamacio Page: WrestlervsAlex Caceres: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Alex Caceres wins(65.5%)

Actual result: Alex Caceres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Caceres at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Caceres has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alex Caceres has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).
Alex Caceres has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Damacio Page

Red Corner

Alex Caceres

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1352

Elo

1500

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'10"

167.64 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Damacio PageL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brian Bowles · Mar 11

SUBvs Brad Pickett · Apr 12

latest

Alex CaceresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22

KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22

vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23

vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23

vs Sean Woodson · May 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Damacio PageMetricAlex Caceres

2.05

Strikes / min

4.21

2.47

Strikes absorbed / min

3.09

51%

Strike defense

62%

2.63

TDs / 15 min

0.54

23%

Takedown defense

64%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.42Δ 1.54 — meaningful gap+1.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Damacio PageAlex Caceres

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Damacio Page(3 fights)Alex Caceres(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -148.2|Blue +148.2

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Damacio PageTargetAlex Caceres

By target zone

17% acc · 43%

Head

57% acc · 44%

100% acc · 43%

Body

100% acc · 44%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

40% acc · 29%

Distance

70% acc · 78%

100% acc · 14%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

25% acc · 57%

Ground

100% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Damacio Page rounds

even

Alex Caceres rounds

Round 1Damacio Page edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control4:22

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 2Damacio Page edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control1:05

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 22

Sig Strikes

9 / 12

38.5%

Sig Str %

78.5%

56 / 76

Total Strikes

16 / 21

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:27

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Caceres	4 / 7	11 / 16	0 / 0	2
1	Damacio Page	5 / 18	39 / 54	1 / 1	0
2	Alex Caceres	5 / 5	5 / 5	0 / 0	1
2	Damacio Page	2 / 4	17 / 22	1 / 1	0

Damacio Page

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights3

Alex Caceres

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights29