Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Daniel Cormier has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Daniel CormierL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Jan 18W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Jul 18W
SUBvs Derrick Lewis · Nov 18L
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Aug 19L
vs Stipe Miocic · Aug 20 Roy Nelson
oldest →L
vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15W
vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16L
vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16L
vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Daniel CormierMetricRoy Nelson
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.33Δ 3.94 — meaningful gap-2.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Daniel CormierRoy Nelson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Daniel Cormier(10 fights)Roy Nelson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -103.0|Blue +103.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +56.0|Blue -56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Daniel CormierTargetRoy Nelson
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Daniel Cormier edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns3
Control2:31
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 2Daniel Cormier edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns0
Control1:20
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Daniel Cormier edged it
Sig. strikes31
Takedowns0
Control0:01
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
