Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Geoff Neal has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Carlos Prates (54.1%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Geoff Neal
oldest →W
KOvs Vicente Luque · Aug 22L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Mar 23L
vs Ian Machado Garry · Feb 24W
KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Oct 24L
KOvs Uros Medic · Feb 26 Carlos PratesW2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Li Jingliang · Aug 24W
KOvs Neil Magny · Nov 24L
vs Ian Machado Garry · Apr 25W
KOvs Leon Edwards · Nov 25W
KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Geoff NealMetricCarlos Prates
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.48evenly matched on net striking+0.11
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Geoff NealCarlos Prates
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Geoff Neal(10 fights)Carlos Prates(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -89.7|Blue +89.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +182.0|Blue -182.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Geoff NealTargetCarlos Prates
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Carlos Prates edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:15
Knockdowns0
32Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
