Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Allen Crowder has 64pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Justin Willis (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Justin Willis
oldest →W
vs James Mulheron · Jul 17W
vs Chase Sherman · Apr 18L
vs Curtis Blaydes · Mar 19 Allen Crowder
oldest →L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Jun 19 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Justin WillisMetricAllen Crowder
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.80evenly matched on net striking0.00
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Justin WillisAllen Crowder
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Justin Willis(5 fights)Allen Crowder(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Justin WillisTargetAllen Crowder
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Justin Willis edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
