Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Julio Arce has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Julio Arce (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Julio Arce
oldest →W
KOvs Andre Ewell · Jul 21L
KOvs Song Yadong · Nov 21W
vs Daniel Santos · Apr 22L
vs Montel Jackson · Nov 22W
KOvs Herbert Burns · Mar 24 Sheymon MoraesL2 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Zabit Magomedsharipov · Nov 17L
vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 19L
KOvs Andre Fili · Jul 19 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Julio ArceMetricSheymon Moraes
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.31Δ 1.95 — meaningful gap-0.64
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Julio ArceSheymon Moraes
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Julio Arce(10 fights)Sheymon Moraes(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +129.4|Blue -129.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +64.0|Blue -64.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Julio ArceTargetSheymon Moraes
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Sheymon Moraes edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control3:21
Knockdowns0
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:42Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Sheymon Moraes edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control0:49
Knockdowns0
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:53Control
1Knockdowns
Round 3Julio Arce edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
