Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Melquizael Costa (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Christian Rodriguez
oldest →W
vs Isaac Dulgarian · Mar 24L
SUBvs Julian Erosa · Jul 24W
vs Austin Bashi · Jan 25W
SUBvs Hyder Amil · Jun 26 Melquizael Costa
oldest →W
SUBvs Andre Fili · Feb 25W
vs Julian Erosa · May 25W
KOvs Morgan Charriere · Dec 25L
DECvs Arnold Allen · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Christian RodriguezMetricMelquizael Costa
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.00evenly matched on net striking+1.41
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Christian RodriguezMelquizael Costa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Christian Rodriguez(10 fights)Melquizael Costa(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -42.3|Blue +42.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +42.0|Blue -42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Christian RodriguezTargetMelquizael Costa
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Christian Rodriguez rounds
Round 1Melquizael Costa edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control2:07
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:12Control
Round 2Melquizael Costa edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns1
Control1:42
26Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:24Control
Round 3Christian Rodriguez edged it
Sig. strikes34
Takedowns4
Control2:59
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:17Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
