Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stephen Thompson has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Patrick CoteL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Joshua Burkman · Aug 15W
KOvs Ben Saunders · Jan 16L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jun 16L
vs Thiago Alves · Apr 17 Stephen ThompsonL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21W
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24L
vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Patrick CoteMetricStephen Thompson
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.40Δ 1.45 — meaningful gap+1.05
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Patrick CoteStephen Thompson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Patrick Cote(10 fights)Stephen Thompson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -122.6|Blue +122.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -53.0|Blue +53.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Patrick CoteTargetStephen Thompson
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Patrick Cote edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control1:21
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:21Control
Round 2Stephen Thompson edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:26
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 3Stephen Thompson edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:17Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
