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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Magomed Ankalaev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1538

Elo1471

Magomed AnkalaevvsAleksandar RakicUFC Prediction Result

UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Saturday, October 26, 2024Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Magomed Ankalaev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMagomed Ankalaev: Elusive strikervsAleksandar Rakic: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Magomed Ankalaev wins(80.3%)

Actual result: Magomed Ankalaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Magomed Ankalaev at -340 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Aleksandar Rakic enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Magomed Ankalaev is a KO finisher (54% of wins). Aleksandar Rakic has lost 60% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Magomed Ankalaev

Red Corner

Aleksandar Rakic

Blue Corner

-340

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+270

(27%)

1538

Elo

1471

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Magomed Ankalaev

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Smith · Jul 22

KOvs Johnny Walker · Jan 24

vs Alex Pereira · Mar 25

KOvs Alex Pereira · Oct 25

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 26

latest

Aleksandar RakicL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Anthony Smith · Aug 20

vs Thiago Santos · Mar 21

KOvs Jan Blachowicz · May 22

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Apr 24

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Magomed AnkalaevMetricAleksandar Rakic

3.65

Strikes / min

4.13

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

2.86

56%

Strike defense

51%

0.79

TDs / 15 min

0.64

87%

Takedown defense

85%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.06evenly matched on net striking+1.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Magomed AnkalaevAleksandar Rakic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Magomed Ankalaev(10 fights)Aleksandar Rakic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +66.5|Blue -66.5

Recent Form

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Magomed AnkalaevTargetAleksandar Rakic

By target zone

28% acc · 36%

Head

15% acc · 19%

76% acc · 40%

Body

75% acc · 17%

100% acc · 24%

Leg

85% acc · 64%

By position

48% acc · 91%

Distance

45% acc · 94%

56% acc · 9%

Clinch

50% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Magomed Ankalaev rounds

even

Aleksandar Rakic rounds

Round 1Aleksandar Rakic edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Magomed Ankalaev edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:13

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control1:18

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:54Control

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 114

Sig Strikes

53 / 117

48%

Sig Str %

44.3%

75 / 142

Total Strikes

59 / 123

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:31

Ctrl Time

1:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Aleksandar Rakic	22 / 45	22 / 45	0 / 0
1	Magomed Ankalaev	19 / 34	19 / 34	0 / 0
2	Aleksandar Rakic	19 / 43	20 / 44	0 / 0
2	Magomed Ankalaev	23 / 50	24 / 52	0 / 0
3	Aleksandar Rakic	12 / 29	17 / 34	0 / 1
3	Magomed Ankalaev	13 / 30	32 / 56	0 / 0

Magomed Ankalaev

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights16

Aleksandar Rakic

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights11