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Women's Flyweight
5 Rounds
Alexa Grasso won · U-DEC R5
Elo1512
Alexa Grasso
Elo1497

Alexa GrassovsViviane AraujoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Saturday, October 15, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alexa Grasso won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexa Grasso: Pressure fightervsViviane Araujo: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Alexa Grasso wins(53.0%)

Actual result: Alexa Grasso wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexa Grasso at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Viviane Araujo has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alexa Grasso
Red Corner
VS
Viviane Araujo
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+180
(36%)
1512
Elo
1497
32
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'4"
167.64 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexa Grasso
oldest →
W
SUBvs Joanne Wood · Mar 22
W
SUBvs Valentina Shevchenko · Mar 23
L
vs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 24
L
vs Natalia Silva · May 25
W
KOvs Maycee Barber · Mar 26
latest
Viviane Araujo
oldest →
L
vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 23
W
vs Jennifer Maia · Oct 23
L
vs Natalia Silva · Feb 24
W
vs Karine Silva · Nov 24
L
vs Tracy Cortez · Jun 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexa GrassoMetricViviane Araujo
4.11
Strikes / min
3.84
3.71
Strikes absorbed / min
4.83
58%
Strike defense
55%
0.40
TDs / 15 min
1.72
54%
Takedown defense
75%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.40Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap-0.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1548 vs 1546Strikes4.7 vs 4.1Takedowns0.4 vs 1.8Sub Atts0.60 vs 0.60Form0.9 vs 0.5
Alexa GrassoViviane Araujo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Alexa Grasso(10 fights)Viviane Araujo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +15.5|Blue -15.5
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +49.0|Blue -49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexa GrassoTargetViviane Araujo

By target zone

101
42% acc · 66%
Head
103
44% acc · 82%
33
73% acc · 22%
Body
17
77% acc · 13%
19
83% acc · 12%
Leg
6
86% acc · 5%

By position

143
48% acc · 93%
Distance
124
48% acc · 98%
9
75% acc · 6%
Clinch
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 1%
Ground
2
100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Alexa Grasso rounds
1
even
1
Viviane Araujo rounds
Round 1Alexa Grasso edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns0
Control0:00
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:29Control
Round 2Alexa Grasso edged it
Sig. strikes38
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:38Control
Round 3Alexa Grasso edged it
Sig. strikes34
Takedowns0
Control0:00
30Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Viviane Araujo edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:00
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:49Control
Round 5Even round
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:00
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:33Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
153 / 311
Sig Strikes
126 / 264
48.8%
Sig Str %
47.2%
193 / 353
Total Strikes
148 / 288
0 / 0
TDs
2 / 10
—
TD %
16.5%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
3:29

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Viviane Araujo27 / 5230 / 550 / 20
1Alexa Grasso32 / 6633 / 670 / 00
2Viviane Araujo20 / 5026 / 562 / 30
2Alexa Grasso38 / 7357 / 920 / 00
3Viviane Araujo30 / 5430 / 540 / 00
3Alexa Grasso34 / 6434 / 640 / 00
4Alexa Grasso24 / 4736 / 590 / 00
4Viviane Araujo25 / 5630 / 620 / 10
5Viviane Araujo24 / 5232 / 610 / 40
5Alexa Grasso25 / 6133 / 710 / 00

Alexa Grasso

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights14

Viviane Araujo

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights13