Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Lukasz Brzeski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Karl Williams has 65pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Karl Williams
oldest →W
vs Chase Sherman · May 23L
vs Jhonata Diniz · Aug 24 Lukasz BrzeskiL3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Aug 23W
vs Valter Walker · Apr 24L
KOvs Mick Parkin · Jul 24L
KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Dec 24L
SUBvs Ryan Spann · Jul 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Karl WilliamsMetricLukasz Brzeski
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.53evenly matched on net striking+1.25
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Karl WilliamsLukasz Brzeski
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Karl Williams(4 fights)Lukasz Brzeski(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +36.2|Blue -36.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +49.5|Blue -49.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +49.7|Blue -49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Karl WilliamsTargetLukasz Brzeski
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Karl Williams edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns3
Control2:14
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:10Control
Round 2Karl Williams edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns4
Control3:42
Knockdowns1
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:16Control
0Knockdowns
Round 3Karl Williams edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control4:17
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
