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Women's Featherweight
3 Rounds
Megan Anderson won · SUB R1
Elo1493
Elo1470
Zarah Fairn

Megan AndersonvsZarah FairnUFC Prediction Result

UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya · Saturday, October 5, 2019Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Megan Anderson won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:57

Model Prediction: Megan Anderson wins(51.2%)

Actual result: Megan Anderson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Megan Anderson at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Zarah Fairn enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Megan Anderson
Red Corner
VS
Zarah Fairn
Blue Corner
-420
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+335
(23%)
1493
Elo
1470
36
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'8"
182.88 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Megan Anderson
oldest →
L
vs Holly Holm · Jun 18
W
KOvs Cat Zingano · Dec 18
L
SUBvs Felicia Spencer · May 19
W
KOvs Norma Dumont · Feb 20
L
SUBvs Amanda Nunes · Mar 21
latest
Zarah FairnL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Felicia Spencer · Feb 20
L
vs Josiane Nunes · Jan 23
L
vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti · Sep 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Megan AndersonMetricZarah Fairn
1.76
Strikes / min
4.55
3.35
Strikes absorbed / min
7.40
37%
Strike defense
45%
0.52
TDs / 15 min
0.00
53%
Takedown defense
60%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.59Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap-2.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1485 vs 1500Strikes1.8 vs 0.5Takedowns0.6 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.60 vs 0.00Form-0.3 vs 0.0
Megan AndersonZarah Fairn

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Megan Anderson(6 fights)Zarah Fairn(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +23.0|Blue -23.0
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red -49.0|Blue +49.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Megan AndersonTargetZarah Fairn

By target zone

10
59% acc · 100%
Head
2
40% acc · 100%
0
0% acc
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
2
40% acc · 100%
0
0% acc
Clinch
0
10
77% acc · 100%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Megan Anderson rounds
0
even
0
Zarah Fairn rounds
Round 1Megan Anderson edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control3:23
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:23Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
10 / 18
Sig Strikes
2 / 5
55%
Sig Str %
40%
22 / 33
Total Strikes
32 / 45
1 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
50%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
1
3:23
Ctrl Time
0:23

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Zarah Fairn2 / 532 / 450 / 00
1Megan Anderson10 / 1822 / 331 / 21

Megan Anderson

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights6

Zarah Fairn

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights4