Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Charles Rosa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Yair Rodriguez has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Charles Rosa (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Yair Rodriguez
oldest →W
KOvs Brian Ortega · Jul 22W
SUBvs Josh Emmett · Feb 23L
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Jul 23L
SUBvs Brian Ortega · Feb 24W
vs Patricio Freire · Apr 25 Charles RosaL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Darrick Minner · Feb 21W
vs Justin Jaynes · Jun 21L
vs Damon Jackson · Oct 21L
vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Yair RodriguezMetricCharles Rosa
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.87Δ 1.65 — meaningful gap-0.78
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Yair RodriguezCharles Rosa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Yair Rodriguez(10 fights)Charles Rosa(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +73.5|Blue -73.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +64.0|Blue -64.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Yair RodriguezTargetCharles Rosa
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Charles Rosa edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:02
9Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:11Control
Round 2Yair Rodriguez edged it
Sig. strikes35
Takedowns1
Control0:28
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:30Control
Round 3Charles Rosa edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:06
15Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:04Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
