Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Max Holloway has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Max Holloway
oldest →W
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24W
vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25L
vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26W
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26 Brian OrtegaL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21L
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 22W
SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Max HollowayMetricBrian Ortega
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+2.30Δ 4.84 — meaningful gap-2.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Max HollowayBrian Ortega
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Max Holloway(10 fights)Brian Ortega(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +28.7|Blue -28.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +91.0|Blue -91.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Max HollowayTargetBrian Ortega
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes40
Takedowns0
Control0:00
19Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:22Control
Round 2Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes66
Takedowns0
Control0:00
33Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes50
Takedowns0
Control0:00
30Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:05Control
Round 4Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes134
Takedowns1
Control0:16
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:58Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
