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Flyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Brandon Moreno won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1487

Elo1495

Brandon MorenovsKai Kara-FranceUFC Prediction Result

UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Saturday, July 30, 2022Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Brandon Moreno won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:34

Style matchupBrandon Moreno: Well-roundedvsKai Kara-France: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Brandon Moreno wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Brandon Moreno wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brandon Moreno at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kai Kara-France has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Brandon Moreno

Red Corner

Kai Kara-France

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1487

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'4"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brandon MorenoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Brandon Royval · Feb 24

vs Amir Albazi · Nov 24

vs Steve Erceg · Mar 25

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Dec 25

vs Lone'er Kavanagh · Feb 26

latest

Kai Kara-France

oldest →

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 21

vs Askar Askarov · Mar 22

vs Amir Albazi · Jun 23

KOvs Steve Erceg · Aug 24

SUBvs Alexandre Pantoja · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brandon MorenoMetricKai Kara-France

3.84

Strikes / min

4.46

3.64

Strikes absorbed / min

3.24

59%

Strike defense

64%

1.36

TDs / 15 min

0.56

65%

Takedown defense

83%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.20Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap+1.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brandon MorenoKai Kara-France

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brandon Moreno(10 fights)Kai Kara-France(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.9|Blue +8.9

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brandon MorenoTargetKai Kara-France

By target zone

32% acc · 74%

Head

34% acc · 45%

80% acc · 21%

Body

75% acc · 6%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

74% acc · 49%

By position

36% acc · 81%

Distance

46% acc · 91%

0% acc

Clinch

69% acc · 19%

Ground

83% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brandon Moreno rounds

even

Kai Kara-France rounds

Round 1Kai Kara-France edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:13

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:26

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Brandon Moreno edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns1

28Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:24Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 151

Sig Strikes

53 / 110

34.7%

Sig Str %

46%

59 / 153

Total Strikes

66 / 123

0 / 3

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:45

Ctrl Time

0:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kai Kara-France	10 / 23	10 / 23	0 / 0
1	Brandon Moreno	7 / 26	7 / 26	0 / 1
2	Kai Kara-France	15 / 36	23 / 44	0 / 0
2	Brandon Moreno	16 / 49	16 / 49	0 / 2
3	Kai Kara-France	28 / 51	33 / 56	1 / 2
3	Brandon Moreno	35 / 76	36 / 78	0 / 0

Brandon Moreno

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18

Kai Kara-France

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights11