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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Urijah Faber won · U-DEC R3
Elo1492
Elo1491

Urijah FabervsIuri AlcantaraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · Saturday, August 17, 2013Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Urijah Faber won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupUrijah Faber: Well-roundedvsIuri Alcantara: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Urijah Faber wins(55.2%)

Actual result: Urijah Faber wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Urijah Faber at -215 American odds

+$47 profit

$147 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Urijah Faber has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Iuri Alcantara (53.5%).
  • Iuri Alcantara has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Urijah Faber
Red Corner
VS
Iuri Alcantara
Blue Corner
-215
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+195
(34%)
1492
Elo
1491
47
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'6"
Height
5'9"
170.18 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Urijah Faber
oldest →
L
vs Dominick Cruz · Jun 16
L
vs Jimmie Rivera · Sep 16
W
vs Brad Pickett · Dec 16
W
KOvs Ricky Simon · Jul 19
L
KOvs Peter Yan · Dec 19
latest
Iuri Alcantara
oldest →
W
SUBvs Luke Sanders · Mar 17
L
SUBvs Brian Kelleher · Jun 17
L
vs Alejandro Perez · Dec 17
W
KOvs Joe Soto · Feb 18
L
KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Urijah FaberMetricIuri Alcantara
2.65
Strikes / min
2.72
2.59
Strikes absorbed / min
2.79
64%
Strike defense
49%
1.54
TDs / 15 min
1.44
58%
Takedown defense
60%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.06evenly matched on net striking-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1536 vs 1529Strikes50.8 vs 28.0Takedowns1.3 vs 1.4Sub Atts0.83 vs 0.80Form0.6 vs 0.6
Urijah FaberIuri Alcantara

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Urijah Faber(10 fights)Iuri Alcantara(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red +35.0|Blue -35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Urijah FaberTargetIuri Alcantara

By target zone

53
69% acc · 98%
Head
5
29% acc · 63%
1
100% acc · 2%
Body
3
60% acc · 38%
0
0% acc
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

3
43% acc · 6%
Distance
2
20% acc · 25%
0
Clinch
0
51
71% acc · 94%
Ground
6
46% acc · 75%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Urijah Faber rounds
0
even
0
Iuri Alcantara rounds
Round 1Urijah Faber edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns1
Control2:18
6Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:32Control
Round 2Urijah Faber edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns2
Control4:29
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Urijah Faber edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns1
Control3:19
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
54 / 79
Sig Strikes
8 / 23
69%
Sig Str %
36%
127 / 155
Total Strikes
25 / 43
4 / 5
TDs
1 / 1
83.3%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
10:06
Ctrl Time
2:32

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Iuri Alcantara6 / 1322 / 321 / 11
1Urijah Faber19 / 3340 / 541 / 10
2Iuri Alcantara1 / 21 / 20 / 00
2Urijah Faber21 / 2749 / 572 / 20
3Iuri Alcantara1 / 82 / 90 / 00
3Urijah Faber14 / 1938 / 441 / 20

Urijah Faber

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights18

Iuri Alcantara

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights17