Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Bo Nickal is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Paul Craig has lost 55% of fights by KO.
- Bo Nickal has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Bo Nickal has 65pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Bo Nickal (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Bo NickalW2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Val Woodburn · Jul 23W
SUBvs Cody Brundage · Apr 24L
KOvs Reinier de Ridder · May 25W
KOvs Rodolfo Vieira · Nov 25W
KOvs Kyle Daukaus · Jun 26 Paul CraigL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Andre Muniz · Jul 23L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23L
KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24L
vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25L
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Bo NickalMetricPaul Craig
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.28Δ 1.82 — meaningful gap-0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Bo NickalPaul Craig
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Bo Nickal(7 fights)Paul Craig(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +70.8|Blue -70.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.6|Blue -1.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +21.0|Blue -21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Bo NickalTargetPaul Craig
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Bo Nickal edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Bo Nickal edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
