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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Arman Tsarukyan won · SUB R2

Elo1531

Elo1484

Arman TsarukyanvsDan HookerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Saturday, November 22, 2025Doha, Qatar

Official fight result

Arman Tsarukyan won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:34

Style matchupArman Tsarukyan: WrestlervsDan Hooker: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Arman Tsarukyan wins(76.7%)

Actual result: Arman Tsarukyan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Arman Tsarukyan at -750 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Arman Tsarukyan enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Dan Hooker (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Arman Tsarukyan

Red Corner

Dan Hooker

Blue Corner

-750

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+530

(16%)

1531

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'7"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Arman TsarukyanW4 streak

oldest →

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Jun 22

vs Damir Ismagulov · Dec 22

KOvs Joaquim Silva · Jun 23

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Dec 23

vs Charles Oliveira · Apr 24

latest

Dan Hooker

oldest →

KOvs Arnold Allen · Mar 22

KOvs Claudio Puelles · Nov 22

vs Jalin Turner · Jul 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Aug 24

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Arman TsarukyanMetricDan Hooker

3.85

Strikes / min

4.82

1.80

Strikes absorbed / min

4.94

54%

Strike defense

49%

3.26

TDs / 15 min

0.68

75%

Takedown defense

77%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.05Δ 2.17 — meaningful gap-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Arman TsarukyanDan Hooker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Arman Tsarukyan(10 fights)Dan Hooker(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +46.8|Blue -46.8

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Arman TsarukyanTargetDan Hooker

By target zone

67% acc · 79%

Head

15% acc · 30%

60% acc · 7%

Body

50% acc · 60%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

58% acc · 43%

Distance

30% acc · 90%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

33% acc · 10%

81% acc · 52%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Arman Tsarukyan rounds

even

Dan Hooker rounds

Round 1Arman Tsarukyan edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control3:16

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Arman Tsarukyan edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control2:46

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 60

Sig Strikes

10 / 33

69.5%

Sig Str %

31.5%

69 / 89

Total Strikes

17 / 41

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

66.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:02

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dan Hooker	5 / 20	9 / 25	0 / 0	1
1	Arman Tsarukyan	19 / 30	32 / 45	1 / 3	0
2	Dan Hooker	5 / 13	8 / 16	0 / 0	1
2	Arman Tsarukyan	23 / 30	37 / 44	1 / 1	1

Arman Tsarukyan

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11

Dan Hooker

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights24