Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Austen Lane enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Justin Tafa is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Austen Lane has lost 80% of fights by KO.
- Justin Tafa has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Justin Tafa (53.5%).
- Austen Lane has a 15cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Justin TafaL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Jared Vanderaa · May 21W
KOvs Harry Hunsucker · Dec 21W
KOvs Parker Porter · Feb 23L
vs Karl Williams · Mar 24L
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Feb 25 Austen LaneL3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Apr 24W
vs Robelis Despaigne · Oct 24L
KOvs Mario Pinto · Mar 25L
SUBvs Vitor Petrino · Jul 25L
KOvs Iwo Baraniewski · Mar 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Justin TafaMetricAusten Lane
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.06Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap+0.25
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Justin TafaAusten Lane
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Justin Tafa(9 fights)Austen Lane(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +46.2|Blue -46.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Justin TafaTargetAusten Lane
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Justin Tafa edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:05
Knockdowns1
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
