Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Ildemar Alcantara has 59pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Wagner Prado (53.5%).
- Ildemar Alcantara has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Wagner Prado
oldest →L
SUBvs Phil Davis · Oct 12 Ildemar Alcantara
oldest →W
vs Albert Tumenov · Feb 14L
vs Kenny Robertson · Jul 14W
vs Richardson Moreira · Jan 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Wagner PradoMetricIldemar Alcantara
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.34evenly matched on net striking-0.70
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Wagner PradoIldemar Alcantara
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Wagner Prado(2 fights)Ildemar Alcantara(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -138.5|Blue +138.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Wagner PradoTargetIldemar Alcantara
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Ildemar Alcantara rounds
Round 1Ildemar Alcantara edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:00
22Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:57Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control1:13
2Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:28Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
