Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Curtis Blaydes is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Tom Aspinall has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Tom Aspinall is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Curtis Blaydes has lost 83% of fights by KO.
- Tom Aspinall has 65pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Curtis Blaydes
oldest →L
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Apr 23W
KOvs Jailton Almeida · Mar 24L
KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 24W
vs Rizvan Kuniev · Jun 25L
DECvs Josh Hokit · Apr 26 Tom Aspinall
oldest →W
SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 22W
KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jul 23W
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 23W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Curtis BlaydesMetricTom Aspinall
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.42Δ 2.59 — meaningful gap+4.01
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Curtis BlaydesTom Aspinall
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Curtis Blaydes(10 fights)Tom Aspinall(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -20.6|Blue +20.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Curtis BlaydesTargetTom Aspinall
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:01
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
