Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Francisco Trinaldo
oldest →W
KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20L
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21W
vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21W
vs Danny Roberts · May 22 Jesse RonsonL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Michel Prazeres · Sep 13W
SUBvs Nicolas Dalby · Jul 20L
SUBvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 22L
KOvs Joaquim Silva · Oct 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Francisco TrinaldoMetricJesse Ronson
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.15
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Francisco TrinaldoJesse Ronson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)Jesse Ronson(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +59.7|Blue -59.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +17.0|Blue -17.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Francisco TrinaldoTargetJesse Ronson
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
2
Francisco Trinaldo rounds
Round 1Francisco Trinaldo edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:22Control
Round 2Jesse Ronson edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:40
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
Round 3Francisco Trinaldo edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns1
Control1:18
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
