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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Francisco Trinaldo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1467

Francisco TrinaldovsDanny RobertsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · Saturday, May 7, 2022Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Francisco Trinaldo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-roundedvsDanny Roberts: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Francisco Trinaldo wins(61.0%)

Actual result: Francisco Trinaldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francisco Trinaldo at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francisco Trinaldo has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Danny Roberts has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Francisco Trinaldo

Red Corner

Danny Roberts

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1496

Elo

1467

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

6'1"

177.8 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francisco Trinaldo

oldest →

vs John Makdessi · Mar 20

KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21

vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21

vs Randy Brown · Oct 22

latest

Danny RobertsL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michel Pereira · May 19

KOvs Zelim Imadaev · Nov 19

vs Ramazan Emeev · Oct 21

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 22

KOvs Jonny Parsons · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francisco TrinaldoMetricDanny Roberts

3.13

Strikes / min

3.18

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.73

60%

Strike defense

50%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

0.24

60%

Takedown defense

57%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46Δ 1.01 — meaningful gap-0.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francisco TrinaldoDanny Roberts

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)Danny Roberts(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +29.0|Blue -29.0

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francisco TrinaldoTargetDanny Roberts

By target zone

61% acc · 78%

Head

16% acc · 42%

80% acc · 20%

Body

80% acc · 33%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

82% acc · 25%

By position

59% acc · 64%

Distance

26% acc · 75%

81% acc · 26%

Clinch

57% acc · 22%

67% acc · 10%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francisco Trinaldo rounds

even

Danny Roberts rounds

Round 1Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:21

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control3:14

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:46

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

80 / 124

Sig Strikes

36 / 118

63.3%

Sig Str %

32.7%

91 / 137

Total Strikes

44 / 128

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:21

Ctrl Time

0:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Danny Roberts	16 / 57	16 / 57	0 / 0	0
1	Francisco Trinaldo	23 / 37	25 / 39	0 / 0	0
2	Danny Roberts	7 / 17	9 / 20	0 / 0	0
2	Francisco Trinaldo	34 / 48	41 / 57	0 / 1	1
3	Danny Roberts	13 / 44	19 / 51	0 / 0	0
3	Francisco Trinaldo	23 / 39	25 / 41	0 / 0	0

Francisco Trinaldo

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Danny Roberts

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14