Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Julian Erosa has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Julian Erosa (53.5%).
- Julian Erosa has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Julian ErosaL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 24W
SUBvs Christian Rodriguez · Jul 24W
KOvs Darren Elkins · Apr 25L
vs Melquizael Costa · May 25L
KOvs Lerryan Douglas · Mar 26 Marcin WrzosekNo prior UFC fights on record.
Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Julian ErosaMetricMarcin Wrzosek
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.13evenly matched on net striking-0.60
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Julian Erosa(10 fights)Marcin Wrzosek(1 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +4.2|Blue -4.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Julian ErosaTargetMarcin Wrzosek
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Julian Erosa edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control1:52
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:47Control
Round 2Marcin Wrzosek edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control1:01
16Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
2:07Control
Round 3Julian Erosa edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns2
Control1:46
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:47Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
