Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Justin Gaethje is a KO finisher (64% of wins). Donald Cerrone has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Tony Ferguson · Jun 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22 Justin GaethjeW3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23L
KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25W
vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26W
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Donald CerroneMetricJustin Gaethje
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.57
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Donald CerroneJustin Gaethje
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Justin Gaethje(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -111.9|Blue +111.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -2.4|Blue +2.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -70.0|Blue +70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Donald CerroneTargetJustin Gaethje
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Justin Gaethje edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
40Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
