Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mitch Gagnon enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Mitch Gagnon threatens submissions; Walel Watson has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Mitch Gagnon has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mitch Gagnon (53.5%).
- Walel Watson has a 25cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mitch GagnonL3 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Roman Salazar · Oct 14L
SUBvs Renan Barao · Dec 14L
vs Matthew Lopez · Dec 16 Walel WatsonL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Joseph Sandoval · Oct 11L
vs Yves Jabouin · Dec 11L
vs TJ Dillashaw · Feb 12 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mitch GagnonMetricWalel Watson
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.55Δ 2.24 — meaningful gap-1.69
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Mitch GagnonWalel Watson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mitch Gagnon(8 fights)Walel Watson(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +20.9|Blue -20.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -157.0|Blue +157.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Mitch GagnonTargetWalel Watson
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Mitch Gagnon edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:31
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
