Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Steve Garcia has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Steve Garcia has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Steve Garcia
oldest →W
KOvs SeungWoo Choi · Jul 24W
KOvs Kyle Nelson · Sep 24W
vs Calvin Kattar · Jul 25W
KOvs David Onama · Nov 25L
KOvs Diego Lopes · Jun 26 Melquizael Costa
oldest →W
vs Christian Rodriguez · Mar 25W
vs Julian Erosa · May 25W
KOvs Morgan Charriere · Dec 25L
DECvs Arnold Allen · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Steve GarciaMetricMelquizael Costa
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+3.27Δ 1.86 — meaningful gap+1.41
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Steve GarciaMelquizael Costa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Steve Garcia(10 fights)Melquizael Costa(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -29.7|Blue +29.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +98.0|Blue -98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Steve GarciaTargetMelquizael Costa
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Melquizael Costa edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
5Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:41Control
Round 2Steve Garcia edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:46
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
